until Texas vs Kansas

Monday, November 14

 

HornsBlog has MOVED

Please visit our new URL at Burnt Orange Nation.

If you run a website or blog that was linking to us previously, we would appreciate it tremendously if you'd update your link to reflect our new URL.

Thanks to everyone who has been visiting us on this site, and we'll look forward to seeing you on the new site. We think you'll like the many improvements as we get everything going on the new site.

Sunday, November 13

 

Kansas Summary

The summary for the Kansas game is up at www.burntorangenation.com. Direct link click here.

Saturday, November 12

 

Texas 66 Kansas 14

It turns out that either The Fighting Manginos of Kansas had an overrated defense or Texas has a ridiculously good offense. It was probably a mixture of both, as Texas moved the ball at will against the overmatched Jayhawks. The Horns amassed 336 yards on the ground and 289 through the air, including 4 Vince Young TD tosses. Young's Heisman rival, Reggie Bush, had only 75 yards on 16 carries. Much, much more on the huge Texas victory, the Heisman trophy race, and the rest of the college football world to come this week on All Things Longhorn.

But the biggest news of all for us on this blog is that we're finally beginning our migration over to the Sports Blog Nation. In fact, the brand new site is UP AND RUNNING now over at www.burntorangenation.com. We're still developing a few different things for the new site, but go ahead and take a look and bookmark the new site now. And offer us your feedback on the new look.
--PB--

Friday, November 11

 

Hook 'Em Early


Now you can start raising your baby Longhorn the right way, as spelled out in the Baby Longhorn DVD! Because it's never too early to start brainwashing them....

Oh man. I got this in my email inbox and didn't know what to do. This is the price we pay for free markets, I suppose.

I'm not sure which is worse--the video itself, or the 10,000 parents that will buy it.
--PB--

 

Special Senior

One of the players making his final appearance at DKR on Saturday is fullback Ahmard Hall. For those unfamiliar with Hall's story, here's a great read about him courtesy of Bill Little at MackBrown-TexasFootball.com.

Hall, a third-year walk-on, was the 2004-05 Big 12 Sportsman of the Year. He is best known for being a former Marine and carrying the American flag out onto the field as the team leaves the tunnel. Last season he carried one time for a 1-yard touchdown, and in 2005 he's got one carry for 10 yards (against Colorado). Here's hoping Mack can get Ahmard into the end zone on Saturday to cap his home career.



--TR--

 

Lovin' Lovell

Lovell Pinkney, the talented but troubled wide receiver at Texas in the early 1990s, is repaying the University for all that it gave him. Reports say that Pinkney is a close friend of star recruit Kevin Durant and urged him to choose Texas, citing how much fun Pinkney had back in the day.

This is undoubtedly true. My father had Pinkney in one of his sociology classes back then and said the guy was all party, no school. Hey—live and let live. Fine by us. Though he did squander his chances at a pro career with his lack of seriousness. Still, we’re especially pleased that he had a good time now that it’s helping Rick Barnes land stud recruits.

Let’s just hope the next star recruit isn’t a friend of Chris Simms. The reviews may not be as favorable.

--PB--

Thursday, November 10

 

For the fans

Not an official ATL rooting guide, but the TR rooting guide.

While enjoying Texas' romp over Kansas this weekend, be sure to cheer for the following outcomes:

Cal over USC: The sooner we're officially No.1 the better, as far as I am concerned. Then we can be even more arrogant and start talking all kinds of smack. I know this differs from the other members of the blog, but this is the TR rooting guide. As the Snickers commercial says: Hungry? Why wait? Plus, tickets to the Rose Bowl will be easier to come by if USC isn't playing.

LSU over Bama: The 'Tide sucks (or at least their offense does). They discredit the word undefeated. Plus, if both USC and Alabama lose, we might get to play LSU in the Rose Bowl. Then we can spot Les Miles a couple of touchdowns for old time's sake before roaring back in the second half.

Ohio State over Northwestern: I'm tired of people not acknowledging Texas' win over Ohio State as the biggest win of the year. Spare me the USC/ND talk. ND had already lost. I'm convinced that had Ohio State beaten us they would be undefeated and ranked #2.

South Carolina over Florida: I love Steve Spurrier and if he beats Tennessee and Florida in his first year at South Carolina, he'll further prove his awesomeness (at least in college football).

Colorado over Iowa State: So the Big 12 title game can have a better matchup. I don't want the Buffs falling out of the rankings until the Horns beat them for a second time.

Texas A&M over OU: Because I hate OU even worse than the Aggies, who have been downgraded from our little brother to our little sister. Still, at least they're family. OU is and will always be the loser who lives down the street that no one likes.

--TR--

 

Big 12 news and notes

Some news and notes from around the Big 12:

• Following Texas A&M’s 52-17 blowout loss to Texas Tech last Saturday, the Aggies experienced a whole new level of humiliation, as raucous Raider fans chanted “Worse than Bay-lor!” at the Aggies as they departed the field.


• Speaking of the unglued Aggies, head coach Dennis Francione has decided his time is better spent complaining about his team’s schedule than doing something, like, improving his team. Franchione recently had a discussion with Big 12 officials in which he complained that the Aggies closing schedule was too tough. The Aggies last three games this year are at Texas Tech, at Oklahoma, and versus Texas. Someone might want to tell Coach Fran that when you lose 42-14 at home against Iowa State, it doesn’t matter who you play, or when.

• Don’t look now, but Texas Tech may be BCS bound. Okay, it’s a long shot, but that it’s a possibility is credit to Mike Leach and the Red Raiders this year. Tech gets hammered with the “overrated” stamp perhaps more than any other team in the country, but close Big 12 watchers know this team is no pushover. Don’t believe me? Ask California how they enjoyed playing Tech in a bowl last year.

• Texas’ 16 game winning streak is the longest since they won 30 in a row during 1968-1970, winning two national titles along the way

• Oklahoma is finally getting healthy, and experienced. Sooner players have combined to miss 31 games because of injuries this season. In the Sooners’ national championship season in 2000, no starter missed a game because of an injury. The Sooners have also played 12 freshmen this season, including five who have started at least one game. They’re re-loading, Horns fans.

• Coach Fran isn’t the only coach saying “I don’t know” when asked what’s wrong with his team. Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel, dangerously similar in his ineptitude to his hoops counterpart Quinn Snyder, had no answers for his team’s recent struggles either. Even when Texas plays exceptionally well, I can tell you what we’re doing wrong. Those words should never come out of a coaches mouth.
--PB--

 

Week 11 Picks: SEC Showdown Edition

Another week, another crack at the picks. ATL did reasonably well last week, going 4-3 with our group picks. This week’s guest pickers are loyal readers Adam Sahyouni and Jason Mayer, both University of Texas alums and college football junkies.

Top Too Much Maroon Game
NameTexas A&M +13 @ OklahomaPick
PBThe Aggies are sad. OU’s offense improving.OU
AWAnother A&M loss towards a losing season. Take the points though.Texas A&M
TRThis much sucking indicates a category 6 hurricane will hit Norman this weekend. As bad as A&M is, OU isn’t blowing anyone out with that offense. Give me the points.Texas A&M
ASI will quote a comment made by Link on the Blog this week “I want the stadium to implode”OU
JMRemember when teams tore down goalposts for beating A&M?OU
Consensus
3 votes to 2
OU



Top Define Yourself Game
NameAuburn +3 @ GeorgiaPick
PBI like the improving Tigers, but Georgia is subtly dominating. They’ll win this game by a TD or more.Georgia
AWWith Shockley back, I have to go with the Dawgs.Georgia
TRSeems like the spread would be bigger. Since it’s not, I think something’s brewing here.Auburn
ASShockley is backGeorgia
JMShockley is back; Bulldogs would be undefeated if he’d been healthy.Georgia
Consensus
4 votes to 1
Georgia


Top Big 11 Game
NameNorthwestern +18 @ Ohio StatePick
PBTroy Smith is #4 in the country in passing efficiency. Whoa.Ohio State
AWTressel has started to teach offense in Columbus and Troy Smith is improving. OSU wins.Northwestern
TRNorthwestern offense is good. It’s season-low in points came at Michigan (17), so I think they can match that here. Add in the 18-point spread, and I see them covering.Northwestern
ASBrett has a very long day against the OSU defense Ohio State
JMThe NU offense has shown weakness the last two weeks and the Buckeye defense is better than Michigan & IowaOhio State
Consensus
3 votes to 2
Ohio State


Top Huge Line Game
NameKansas +34 @ TexasPick
PBSenioritis keeps the score under the spread.Kansas
AWSenior Day. The Horns are 8-1 against the spread. VY keeps rollng.Texas
TRSenior day = UT big, 52-13. Horns House
ASI honestly have no idea here. Will we beat them? Of course. The Question is how bad did the fat man piss the Horns off.Kansas
JMIt might be hard to cover the spread when all your sixth string senior walk-ons are playing.Kansas
Consensus
3 votes to 2
Kansas


Top SEC Game
NameLSU -3 @ AlabamaPick
PBBama defense will suffocate Les Miles. Bama offense gets on the board to win a squeaker, 17-13.Bama
AWThis line looks wrong. Bama is undefeated and at home. Vegas has it right.LSU
TRLSU rolls the tide by 14+.Geaux Tigers
ASNot being able to score TD’s catches up this week LSU
JMAlabama is finally exposed. As long as LSU can score 10 points.LSU
Consensus
4 votes to 1
LSU


Top Potential Rose Bowl Wrecking Game
NameUSC -19 @ CaliforniaPick
PBCal is no match for the Trojans. This line should be higher. Farm bet of the week.USC
AWLast loss was at Cal two years ago. Won’t happen again but Cal hangs tough.Cal
TRI’m through rooting for USC to meet us in the Rose Bowl. Their D is a joke. Plus, I’d sure like to avenge the 1991 Cotton Bowl.Cal
ASAs much as I would like to go the other way, USC puts on a clinic. Bet the HOUSE.USC
JMUSC is good. Cal is not. This year won’t be close.USC
Consensus
3 votes to 2
USC

 

Departing Longhorns

As we approach Senior Day in Austin this Saturday, it’s time to take a look at the seniors that will depart the team after this season:

Will Allen (OL)
Steven Andrade* (DE)
Brian Carter (WR)
Xang Chareunsab* (WR)
Mike Garcia (OL)
Cedric Griffin (CB)
Ahmard Hall (FB)
Eric Hall (DE)
Michael Huff (S)
Kalen Jakes (DE)Braden Johnson (LB)
Matt Logan* (WR)
Richmond McGee (P/PK)
Karim Meijer (DB)
Matt Nordgren (QB)
Jason Perez* (LB)
Kyle Phillips* (PK)
David Pino (PK)
Brad Poronsky* (OL)
Kirby Portley* (TE)
James Ray* (DB)
Nick Schroeder (Deep Snapper)
Jonathan Scott (OL)
Cody Stavig* (DB)
Anthony Strong* (WR)
David Thomas (TE)
William Winston (OL)
Rodrique Wright (DT)
Jerren Wight* (DB)

*Denotes non-scholarship player

-Starters in bold

Texas will sorely miss the departing offensive linemen, Michael Huff, Ced Griffin, Rodrique Wright, and David Thomas. Obviously, the Horns will be featuring some new kickers next year as well, as both David Pino and Richmond McGee are departing.

--PB--

 

Why Vince Returns

Vince Young has declared his intentions to return to Texas next year for his senior season. If he wins the Heisman and Texas claims the national title, some will say he's foolish not to leave since he will have accomplished everything he can in college.

Here are the top five reasons I think he's coming back.

1. Mack never loses underclassmen (unless they allegedly smoke pot before the Cotton Bowl), and Vince isn't going to buck that trend. Mack has done a lot for Vince in giving him the reins of a top-five program and letting him do his thing. Those of us who have followed Mack his entire time in Austin can see the difference in the way he's handling the team. Of course it's worked out well, but Mack couldn't have known that for sure. It's human nature do things your way so at least if you fail, you failed your way. I imagine Vince feels a lot of loyalty to Mack, and Mack needs Vince next year so whatever high school quarterback phenom they sign this year can have a year to develop. No offense to Colt McCoy, who I am sure is a good player, but I'd feel better if he wasn't the only option to follow in Vince's footsteps. Next year, it's him and whoever comes in as true freshman. In 2007, the options will be far greater.

2. Vince isn't getting drafted ahead of either member of the USC duo in 2006. He can improve his draft status (and bonus money) in the 2007 draft. Plus, he'll have a monster insurance policy if he does come back, just like Leinart has this year at USC.

3. Everyone knows his delivery needs work. Consider the career of Steve McNair. He was the third pick of the 1995 draft despite playing at Division I-AA. He obviously wasn't ready for the NFL, and he didn't become a full-time starter until his third year. If Vince needs two years of practice to develop an NFL-quality throwing motion before he can be a starting QB in the NFL, why not spend one of them at UT and one on the bench in the NFL instead of two on an NFL bench?

4. He will be a GOD in Austin. You think Ricky Williams was popular? People will throw rose petals (or underwear) at Vince's feet everywhere he goes. He'll be on the cover of every preview magazine next year, too, and his hype will be Leinart-esque. Maybe Vince will even sign up for ballroom dance. (Hell, I took it my senior year at UT. It's pretty fun.)

5. And here's a scary thought: Texas should be even better next year. If the Horns win it all this season, they will enter 2006 with a 20-game winning streak. USC's streak will be at 34 if the Trojans reach the Rose Bowl this season, and everyone talks about them as if they are in the NFL. People in Austin have long considered the Horns their NFL team, but next year with Vince back the hype will finally be appropriate.
--TR--

 

Getting To Know You: Jayhawk Edition

Media guides are fun… For this edition, we’ll pull a few factoids from the KU media guide and offer comments.

Rush defense: The Kansas rush defense ranks first in the nation, allowing just 64 yards per game on the year. Seven times this season the KU defense has surrendered less than 100 rushing yards to an opponent (70 vs Florida Atlantic, 38 vs Louisian Tech, 47 at Texas Tech, 35 at Kansas State, 96 vs Oklahoma, 33 vs Missouri, 21 vs Nebraska.

Hmmm… That makes me wonder if those teams are any good at running the ball. Let’s check their national ranks in rushing offense.

Louisiana Tech is ranked 58th in rushing offense, Oklahoma 47th, Texas Tech 98th, Nebraska 110th, Missouri 23rd, Kansas State 94th, and Florida Atlantic 105th. And the Jayhawks played Oklahoma when Peterson was injured—he only had 5 rushes in the game.

I’m certain the Kansas defense is solid, but before we coronate them as rushing defenders of the year, let’s bear in mind that they’ve been facing some pretty miserable rushing teams. The only impressive game is the domination of Missouri and Brad Smith.

First and Ten: Last Saturday the Jayhawks held Nebraska to seven first downs.

This says more about how far Nebraska has fallen than how good the Jayhawks have been. The Cornhuskers now rank 108th in the nation in total offense. Folks, it’s tough to be that inept.

Inside the numbers: In its two consecutive wins, KU averaged 363 total yards while holding opponents to an average of 159 yards per game.

KU’s last two opponents? The aforementioned Division II Cornhuskers and inconsistent Missouri Tigers. Again, while this Jayhawk defensive unit deserves praise, I’m not ready to believe that they have a chance at shutting down Texas.

All five of Kansas’ victories have come in Lawrence this year.

Someone forgot to tell Mark Mangino that this one’s being played in Austin this year.

A Kansas WIN would…
Be the team’s first victory against Texas since the 1938 season, and snap a string of five straight wins by the Longhorns… Be KU’s first-ever win in Texas-Memorial Stadium… Give Mark Mangino his 18th career win as head coach, making his overall record 18-28.

I know I’m pounding on a dead horse here, but whatever. Mangino picked this fight. I can’t believe I’m fired up to beat the crap out of Kansas. You’d think this were a basketball game. Just goes to show what a dumb thing it is for Mangino to be giving the Horns bulletin board material.

Anyway, the whole KU media guide is pretty depressing. It’s mostly filled with neat factoids about the defense and how much better they are than in any previous year, which of course just belies the fact of how miserable they’ve always been. Not that I blame them—that’s what media guides are supposed to do. The Texas media guide reads like a cheerleaders guide to 100+ years of beating the hell out of Rice and Baylor.

I’m on record predicting a 41-10 Horns victory, with Kansas getting some late garbage score while our fourth string seniors get some fourth quarter action in their last game. Time for the readers to weigh in on game predictions. What will be the final score of the game? And how many rushing yards will Texas gain against the “vaunted” Kansas rushing defense? If you predict Texas’ exact rushing yards total, we’ll give you a free t-shirt of your choice from the Co-Op. To be eligible, you must include your full name and email in the comment section when you post your prediction.
--PB--

 

Remarkable Vince Young Stat of the Day

Vince Young needs just 145 yards rushing to become only the fifth player in NCAA history to rush for 3,000 yards and pass for 5,000 yards.
--PB--

 

Triple Threat

Thanks to Michael Holt for first calling our attention to this: Sportsbook.com has posted a unique bet on Texas winning both the football and basketball national championships. The Horns, #2 in the BCS football standings and #2 in the preseason AP basketball poll, are at 35-1 to hold win both titles. (See the press release about the bet here.) No school has ever won the football and basketball championships in the same year.

And let's not forget that the Horns already won this year's baseball championship.

--PB--

 

Texas completes second pre-season rout

Texas routed Lenoir-Rhyne 97-36 to complete their pre-season schedule. The Division II school is the alma mater of Rick Barnes. The Horns looked sloppy early in the first half before rolling, especially in the second half. The defense was very impressive holding the Bears to just 30% shooting and forcing 29 turnovers. Buckman and Aldridge each had double-doubles. Both were able to consistently establish low post position deep in the paint and just wait for the feeds from Texas guards. The Horns dominated all the statistical categories against the slower and shorter competition. Rebounds 41-30, assists 17-7, points in the paint 44-16, and points off turnovers 39-4.

This was a total mismatch from the opening tip. Give credit to Barnes and his staff for keeping the players motivated throughout. Lenoir-Rhyne coach John Lentz said after the game, “They are much better than they were last year.” I think so too, but we will find out for sure when Texas opens the regular season on Tuesday in the first round of the Guardians Classic against Southern.
--AW--

 

Barnes Inks Top Class

Rick Barnes signed one of the nation’s top classes on Wednesday. Five players signed to play with the Horns next season. A sixth player, DJ Augustin, will sign on Thursday. He waited one day to sign on his birthday. Texas’ class is rated as the nation’s fifth best by Rivals.com and seventh best by Scout.com.

The class is led by
Kevin Durant (6’9,200) a perimeter forward with NBA skills from Maryland. Durant is the rated as the second best high school prospect in the country. Before this year, Durant would have likely left for the NBA. Durant picked Texas over Connecticut and North Carolina. Barnes will land DJ Augustin tomorrow. Augustin (6’1”,170) follows in the footsteps of TJ Ford and Daniel Gibson as top point guards to sign for Barnes. Augustin is currently playing in the Houston area after evacuating Louisiana because of Hurricane Katrina. Augustin could be asked to contribute quickly if Gibson bolts to the pros. Also signing on Wednesday were Dexter Pittman (6’10”,320), Matt Hill (6’10”,220), Harrison Smith (6’3”,185), and Justin Mason (6’3”,175). Pittman and Hill will be bangers on the low blocks. Like Augustin, both will grab minutes next season with Buckman and likely Aldridge departing. Smith is a former high school teammate of Daniel Gibson and backcourt starter on their state championship team who uses his strength and athleticism to get to the rim. Mason is known as a gym rat who can play both guard positions.

This is an extremely impressive class. Before Rick Barnes, Texas did not steal recruits from North Carolina and Connecticut. Now, we regularly land McDonald’s All Americans and compete for the best players in the country. High school players watched TJ Ford lead Texas to the Final Four. They watched Gibson and Aldridge star last year as freshman and they see our top 2 pre season rankings. Great things are happening at DKR and our road to the Rose Bowl, but let’s not forget the great things that Rick Barnes and the men’s basketball team are accomplishing. Great coaches can make good teams champions, but the talent has to be there too. Texas is now landing top talent every year. And Barnes has the skills to make us great. Can cutting down the nets be that far away?
--AW--

Wednesday, November 9

 

Point, Counterpoint: Saturday's Psychological Edge

We've argued that Mark Mangino's BCS conspiracy rantings, coupled with his comments that KU outplayed and outcoached the Horns, gave Texas a psychological edge. Our reasoning is that Kansas' best hope for beating Texas this year, given the ridiculous talent gap, is catching Texas flat. Such "bulletin board material" merely angers Goliath; not a good idea.

Our friendly rivals at the Kansas
Phog Blog, not surprisingly, offer a different take on the psychological battle:

The first time in history in which the previous year’s winner is seeking revenge. Vince Young says Mangino disrespected him and his coaches by pointing out that UT was outplayed and out-coached last year. (News flash: the next time Mack Brown out-coaches anyone will be the first time. And a 20+ point favorite having to rely on a dishonest call to defeat a 4-7 team? If that’s not being outplayed, what is?) Young says the Longhorns intend to dominate the game to teach Mangino a lesson.

The good news is that Young’s whining means either that UT (a) is not taking KU seriously and grasping at straws for artificial motivation that will disappear after the first few plays; or (b) is seriously focused on Mangino—which is a distraction—rather than focusing on playing football.

Either way, KU has the psychological advantage.

Okay readers, it's on you now. Offer your own analysis on this topic of debate. Is the Mark Mangino blathering a distraction, or positive motivation, for Texas this Saturday?
--PB--

 

From the Mail Bag

A dive in to the mail bag provides us with this question from loyal reader (and Iowa State blogger) Alex Ernst:

I was wondering your thoughts on this, but you guys tend to think Vince is unstoppable. Are there any defenses out there that you could see giving him trouble? I mean, just slowing down his running game. I was wondering after Iowa State completely shut down Smith and McNeal on the ground, if you thought they could hold Young somewhat in check and make him throw the ball more.

Hey Alex – thanks for the question. If you’re wondering whether a team can hold Young’s running in check and force him to throw, the answer is yes. After the first quarter, Ohio State did an excellent job of keying in on Vince Young and making him throw. But that’s the trouble Texas opponents’ have been facing this year. The guy can throw. Young is ranked third in the nation in passing efficiency and has become such a good passer that you really can’t afford to solely key in on stopping his runs. It’s a no-win situation.

Vince Young’s improvements in the passing game are the single biggest reason why Texas is a legitimate national title contender. The offense can beat you so many ways this year.

Got a question for the ATL authors? Send them an
email.
--PB--

 

How TV ads get made

I haven’t the foggiest idea what teams are in this highlight, or how it in any way relates to the University of Texas, but it’s blog-worthy, that’s for sure. Loyal reader Christian Loew sent in this video clip to us last night, and we can’t pass up sharing it with all of you.

Watch the clip and then let me know if you’re thinking what I’m thinking… Yeah, thought so. This has Wheaties ad written all over it. “Better eat your Wheaties!”
--PB--

 

Kansas @ Texas Preview

Kansas is in a much better spot than Baylor was last week, when Texas was knee deep in an increasingly close battle among Rose Bowl suitors. Now that Virginia Tech has been defeated, Texas sits in a far more comfortable position, needing only to win out for a Rose Bowl berth.

So, while Texas was playing for style points last week, focused intently on completely demolishing the Bears, one could argue that Texas is in perfect position for a letdown game. If Texas were playing the improved Jayhawks on the road, I might buy in to that a bit. The reality is, though, that this game is a home game and, more importantly, it’s senior day. Saturday’s game will be the last game in Austin for some thirty Longhorns, and I don’t see Texas being flat for this one at all.

Add in the fact that Kansas gave Texas a serious scare last year, and the likelihood of a letdown decreases further. If we can eliminate the potential letdown factor from the equation, how does this game break down?

It’s a pretty simple one, actually. All Texas has to do is have a solid offensive day and they’ll win. They don’t need to perfect, or even great—just good. Kansas’ biggest problem in this game is that their offense is pretty challenged. They rank 8th in the conference in rushing, 10th in passing, and 11th in total offense. That’s not a recipe for success against Texas. To beat the Longhorns, you’ve got to be able to score a lot. You aren’t going to beat Texas 10-7 any more than anyone’s going to beat USC by that score. The team that hands Texas or USC its first loss is going to do so with a big offensive game. Kansas can’t do that.

With that said, the Jayhawks defense does deserve some praise here. They rank first in the nation in rushing defense, 37th in passing defense, and 5th in total defense. They only allow 18 points per game. Their coach, big Mark Mangino, is an above average defensive coach. Much like Baylor, it’s hard to take Kansas football seriously, but their defense is to be respected. They play hard, they tackle well, they're well coached, and they execute what they’re asked to do.
Snicker all you want; it’s not a bad unit.

Still, even with an above average defense, Kansas is totally outmatched here. They haven’t played an offense as diversely dangerous as Texas’s at all. The best offense they’ve faced—that of Texas Tech—put up 30 points on them. Texas may not beat up on the Kansas defense the way they have against some of their opponents this year, but they’re not going to be stopped, either. Kansas needs to win the battle of turnovers by at least two, needs to dominate the field position game, and hope for a defensive or special teams score. Barring that perfect storm, this one won’t be close. I think Texas will keep its focus, build a 20-3 halftime lead, and win by a final margin of 41-10, with most of its starters on the bench in the fourth quarter.

--PB--

Tuesday, November 8

 

Random News & Notes

A quick bullet point rundown before tomorrow’s forray into the Kansas game and our weekly national picks:

• Nine teams in the Big 12 rank in the top 50 in rushing defense nationally, including three in the top 10 and five in the top 20. Kansas (1), Oklahoma (2), Colorado (5), Iowa State (12), Texas (20), Nebraska (26), Texas A&M (37), Kansas State (39), and Texas Tech (47) have all been successful in keeping opponents’ running games in check. That’s partly a product of the lack of potent rushing attacks in the Big 12, but also indicative of the strong rush defense the conference always plays.

• Remember all the preseason hype about Reggie McNeal? Some even suggested that a McNeal for Vince Young swap might be in Texas’ best interest. Turns out that wouldn’t have been such a hot idea. McNeal is completing a mediocre 54.5% of his passes, with 14 TDs against 8 INTs. It’s been the Aggies rushing game, ranked 11th nationally with 224 yards per game, that’s saved the offense from complete destruction. That pass defense, too, needs a little work.

• Before the Pac 10 bandwagoneers come stampeding through here, we offer you this nugget: this year’s top 14 teams in total defense (in order of 1 to 14)—Miami, Virginia Tech, Alabama, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, LSU, Connecticut, and Penn State. Recognize any of those teams in the top half of the rankings these days? Before the Trojan flaming begins, let us offer this peace offering: This criticism doesn’t apply to you. Pete Carroll knows how to coach defense. We know that. Relax. Breathe.

• Ohio State has only forced 10 turnovers this year, good for 110th in the nation. Two of those, you may remember, came against the Horns. Bizarre. That stat just surprised me. I really think the Big 10 is this year’s SEC—head and shoulders above the rest. Poor Michigan has faced seven top thirty teams already. It makes me wonder if Penn State, and not Virginia Tech, might have been the best bet to unseat Texas’ Rose Bowl berth had they remained unbeaten.

• Matt Leinart (#1) and Vince Young (#3) are at the top of the passing efficiency leaders for the year. Leinart’s spot at the top surprises none, while Vince Young’s passing critics really are firing blanks. Cocky Trojan fans may not want to admit how good Young and Texas have been this year, but smart college football fans want this matchup. It’s not just narrative: these are your two best teams this year. Sometimes, when we’re lucky, narrative and the truth collide. I think this is one of those “good years” for the BCS. (Hehe—watch us lose to Kansas)

• While that previous bit of information may not have surprised you, I bet this will. Guess who checks in at #4 in the nation in passing efficiency? Troy Smith of Ohio State. The Buckeye-Wolverine game could shape up to be a dandy. (Paging Chad Henne!)

• Other stats USC and Texas excel in: 3rd down conversion percentage (USC 2nd nationally, Texas 5th), rushing defense (USC #19, Texas #20), and total offense (USC #1, Texas #4).
--PB--

 

Reluctant Bone Toss To Dogs of the Day

I was torn on whether or not to give these jokers the time of day, but hey, this is a blog, and it’s our job to get you to, like, emote. So, we limply present to you the bozos of…

This site.

Start your flaming, Horns fans.
--PB--

 

Dumb Things Fat People Say

Remember last year, when Texas scored two late touchdowns to beat Kansas, 27-23? It was a pretty crappy performance from Texas, save the final two drives, but the worst of it didn’t come from the Longhorns. No, Mark Mangino won that honor with his post-game comments. In case you forgot:

“You know what this is all about, don't you? BCS. That's what made a difference today in the game,” Mangino said. “That's what made the difference in a call in front of their bench. Dollar signs.”

Gotcha, Mark. There’s nothing quite like a grand conspiracy theory to bail your team out for a disappointing loss. Hey, that’s why we got another Yankees-Red Sox ALCS this year. Because that’s what the big dollars wanted, goddamnit!

Big Gut Maggoo, err… Mark Mangino, an offspring of the Bob Stoops program at OU, should be above that. But, rather than pass judgment on Mangino for remarks he made in the heat of the moment, let me just remind our readers that such things are not forgotten.

On Monday Texas coaches passed around newspaper clippings of those quotes to their players to remind them of last year’s game and fire them up. Another week, another outmatched Texas opponent making sure they catch an angry, rather than sleeping, giant.

Hey, who am I to complain?
--PB--

 

Barnes Lands Another

Rick Barnes has received another verbal commitment for next year's squad. DJ Augustin, a 6' 1" point guard from Sugar Land (via Louisiana after Katrina), is a 4 star recruit according to Scout.com and is rated the seventh best point guard in the country. Rick Barnes is securing a future after the inevitable departure of Daniel Gibson. Augustin is the sixth prospect to make a verbal commitment to the Horns. Again, verbal commitments are not binding, but if everyone signs this will be a definitely be a top 10 class. The early signing period starts tomorrow and continues through November 16th.
--AW--

 

ATL Interview: Everyone Should Be This Funny

ATL had the unique opportunity to pose some questions to two of the funniest college football writers you’ll find, Orson Swindle and Stranko Montana, co-authors of Every Day Should Be Saturday. Along with having the coolest named blog around, they’re laugh-out-loud funny, and poignant, to boot. Graduates of the University of Florida, the two authors of EDSBS answered a few questions for ATL. We couldn’t have enjoyed their answers more. We’re sure you will, too.

ATL: Describe Florida's season in one sentence for us.

EDSBS: Florida's season has been a treat for the whole family, a story both adults and children can love featuring the unique vocal talents of Aaron Carter, Tom Waits, and Stephen Hawking.

Seriously? Shit, that's not easy. Try this on: one long scrimmage with mixed results.

ATL: What's up with Chris Leak? He looks like such an impressive quarterback to us, but he doesn't seem to be taking to Urban Meyer's system that well? Help us out: what's up?

EDSBS: Leak's being asked to do two things he's never done prior to this year. First, he's supposed to run an option, which a great number of high school quarterbacks get at least some experience doing along the way. Not so for Leak, who essentially ran the same static spread offense all the way from high school through his first two years of college. It hasn't been pretty, but with the recent tweaks in the run game it's been a little less horrific the past two games.

Second, he's being asked to make calls at the line for the first time in both the run and pass game. Believe it or not, film monster and workaholic Leak--who youthink would have been given a certain amount of trust before--was never given the option to audible at the line.

Finally, remember this: Leak's only a junior. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's only had one season prior to this one as the full-time starter in an entirely different offense. He just had his best game of the season, and Meyer seems to know what to do with him now. He'll probably leave Florida as a disappointment in some people's eyes, but given the banana republic drama of the Zook years, that's a cheap shot, we think.

ATL: How does the next year or two look for Florida? Are you optimistic?

EDSBS: We are. The talent pipeline is wide open and Meyer is texting recruits in their sleep, so recruiting won't be an issue. The mystique-building that took a hitunder Zook (we just kicked our dog again--look what you made us do!!!) is recovering somewhat.

And for most of the year, people can still walk around Gainesville half-naked, which goes a long way when you're dealing with oversexed and indulged 18-year old athletes. Why can't Notre Dame recruit with USC and Miami? Ever tried walking around South Bend in hot pants and a bandana top? We have, and let me tell you, chapped penis does not spell fun in anyone's dictionary.

More important than that is Urban Meyer's ability to win games despite a sputtering offense and first-year kinks in the system. He's won low-scoring grappling matches like the Tennessee and Georgia games. He's won a shootout in the Vandy game. He almost won at LSU. Really, there's only been one game where we had our asses handed to us, and that was against the only undefeated team in the conference.

And he adjusted when he had to, giving Leak a wider comfort zone for the Georgia and Vandy games. If we split the last two games, Florida goes 8-3 per our prediction and lives up to first-year billing. Not bad for someone's first year in a big boy conference.

The only real concern is the weakness of the conference in the bottom five teams and how that will reflect on our strength of schedule. Everyone needs to just hold on to their coaches for a while and let them do some real work, especially over in the West, where for some reason the trigger's a little quicker. Look at Bobby Johnson at Vandy, who's worked miracles with his team given a fair amount of time. Take a deep breath. Have a Fresca, in the words of Judge Smails from Caddyshack.

ATL: Vince Young, Reggie Bush, or Matt Leinart for Heisman?

EDSBS: Vince Young. Even Bevo-haters begin their arguments with "Well, without Young you'd be 3-7, in the C-USA, totally gay and loving it, blah blah blah... " That'sa great testament to how important he really is. The agony for us is imagining the holy terror he'd be in the Florida offense. He embarrasses people in the Mack-attack, but he'd straight burn stadiums to the ground in the spread option and sow salt on the ground when he left. A Halley's comet talent who still doesn't get the pub he deserves because he's closer to Texarkana than New York or Los Angeles. Enjoy him.

ATL: Assume a Texas-USC Rose Bowl. Who wins it?

EDSBS: Hate me now: USC. That's money talking, though--we'd love to see what Gene Chizik would cook up for that game. We have a feeling it would involve chickenblood, the hair of a dead man, six hours of dancing around a bonfire and one picture of Matt Leinart. Texas provides the toughest matchup, we think, but theUSC offense is epochal. They're going a long way down from it next year.

ATL: You hear a lot of SEC-bashing these days. Do you think it's overblown?

EDSBS: Not really, but there's a fair amount of Gomer-pointing involved in it too. We cheat. We lie. We schedule cupcakes. All true, too, but when someone can give a critique without invoking the hayseed angle--as John Walters did in CNNSI--we listen. You don't hear that as often as you hear the evil redneck angle.

It goes to a larger pattern in college football coverage that anything not aligned with the media poles of LA and New York is considered strange or otherwise lesser. Regionality is hard to market, so it's pushed to the side in favor of easy branding. USC and Notre Dame coming back to national prominence means something easy for the big networks to latch on to--historical brands with big name recognition. Texas or Florida's a little harder for them to pitch to thecoasts.

This all explains why living in Atlanta is so, so good for a college football fan: the college game is THE game here, and everything else scrambles for second. Note the huge contingent of bloggers in the Atlanta area--Georgia Sports, Sexy Results, ATL Eagle, The Drizzle, Braves and Birds...there's reasons to be here, and they mostly happen in the fall.

ATL: Do you have a gripe with the BCS system or are you relatively satisfied with the status quo?

EDSBS: Yes. It's fraud and a beauty pageant. But not a Miss America-style pageant; no, it's more like a bad state fair pageant, where two or three qualified contestants keep straight faces while Miss Bucksnort county clogs for the judges with five pounds of makeup on her pockmarked skin before launching into her screeching,country-rap-rock version of "Hollaback Girl." And Miss Bucksnort county's daddy is on the judges' panel, too, so you know she's at least getting into the final round.

Miss Bucksnort couldn't actually compete her way to the crown, though--which is why we need a playoff like we need a drink just thinking about the shambolic BCS scenarios that could still play out this year.

--PB--


Monday, November 7

 

In praise of skycam

As if watching Virginia Tech get exposed on Saturday wasn't fun enough, college football fans with ESPNU had the pleasure of watching the entire game from the perspective of skycam.

Skycam has been used before for some replays and on Monday Night Football (Donovan McNabb had a memorable scramble and throw last year against Dallas captured by skycam), but the Miami-VT game was the first to be shown in its entirety this way.

How was it? In a word: fantastic.

Since my living room has three TVs side-by-side, I was able to watch the game simultaneously on ESPN (traditional view) and ESPNU (skycam) to compare the two, and everyone at my house agreed the skycam view was better.

It's like watching a game of Madden on XBOX, as you see what the QB sees. I found myself yelling at the screen telling Marcus Vick to throw deep to the tight end streaking down the middle when I saw the safety creeping up (he didn't listen), while also seeing the holes open for the running backs.

The only downside to skycam is you can't see the outside receivers and the camera doesn't rotate 180 degrees after the punt returner catches the punt, like the camera does in Madden. Still, the view was great and something that should be offered for every big-time telecast.

I also have the NFL Sunday Ticket, and if the NFL is smart (it is), it should start offering two feeds for every game, one with traditional camera views and another shown exclusively from the skycam perspective. Think of it like an alternate commentary on a DVD.

Side note: watching commercials on ESPN and ESPNU at the same time is hilarious, because they obviously target different audiences.

For example, at the same time ESPN's ads were for:

Nissan
Niva for men
Allstate
Under Armour
Taco Bueno

Meanwhile, ESPNU's ads were for:

Bryan Adams Greatest Hits CD (seriously)
Folicare ("Hair loss treatment without the sexual side effects")
RV Trainer (A Joe Montana-endorsed football with a string around it so it comes back to you when you throw it)
Bowflex (Guy in ad tells how he stays in shape at age 41)
Magicfundamentals.com (Learn basketball from Magic Johnson)

In summary:
If you watch ESPNU, you're a 40-something, balding Bryan Adams lover hoping to teach your kid how to play sports, with the help of your heroes. If you watch ESPN, you're younger and cooler, becuase you work out, dress up for the ladies, drive a new car (with insurance) and eat fast food.

--TR--

 

Street named AL ROY

The voters got it right, if you ask us. Former Texas star and current Oakland A's closer Huston Street won the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year today. We've blogged several times about Street's amazing rookie campaign. He was Mariano Rivera in green.

Congratulations to Huston Street.

--PB--

 

USC fans really are dumb

Hey, a theme for the day is emerging! USC fans are really dumb. We’ve already exposed BFT for what he is (a BFJ), but I stumbled into more dumb USC writing and, well, I’m feeling rather snarky today.

Our latest example of Trojan stupidity comes from Crazy Trojan Musings. It’s just another USC homer site, which we don’t have any problem with, but he picked a fight with us in
this post about our Longhorn Fan Rooting Guide.

Writes Crazy Trojan:

Is this serious? Do Longhorns fans really need to be told which teams to root for? They even advocate rooting for the Sooners and the Aggies because it will improve Texas' schedule strength. That's just sad.

As long as polls play a role in determining the national champion of Div. 1 college football, no team is in complete control of its destiny. What's the use in getting worked up over the results of games across the country over which your team has absolutely no influence. It's simple for USC fans; we root for the Trojans . . . and whoever is playing UCLA.


Okay, where to start? What is the goal of the USC football team every year? I would suggest that it is to win a national championship. Certainly, that’s the goal we have here in Texas.

And, as you point out, there are polls involved in determining which teams get to actually play for said national championship. More to the point, there are lots of factors that go into the equation of who gets to play. And a notable chunk of it has to do with how your opponents fare in their other games.

Now, we could take your advice and simply root against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, even if it’s in direct conflict with our stated goal of, you know, playing for the national champsionship. Maybe Auburn fans were delighted last year when their rivals, Alabama, struggled much of the year. More likely, though, they were pissed as hell that their football team was on the outside of the title game looking in.

We’re not brain dead here in Texas (though you appear to be dangerously close). We’ll root for whatever helps Texas get to the title game. You just keep rooting against the Bruins and hope that UCLA doesn't keep USC out of the title game one year.

--PB--

 

Horns #2 in latest BCS standings

Texas has held its spot at #2 in the BCS rankings again this week, as USC remains the top team due its lead in both the human polls. Alabama checks in at #3, but is too far behind to catch the Trojans or Longhorns if they both win out.

For those interested, Michigan State, better known as the Notre Dame slayers, did not appear in the Top 25. Weird. I wonder if BFJ took notice... Doubtful.
--PB--

 

BFT plagued with penis envy

Perhaps it's penis envy, or maybe it's just plain old fashioned Texas hating, but Boi From Troy has listed the Longhorns at #6 on his Blog Poll ballot. Aside from vastly underrating the Horns, he has a two-loss Notre Dame team ahead of Texas. Yes, the same Notre Dame team that lost at home to Michigan State. The Spartans, meanwhile, are a team that lost, at home, to Northwestern, 49-14. And again, this week, to Purdue. What the f*ck?

BFT does a great job of blogging about gay politics. But I won't bother checking his blog for anything related to sports. He's either dumb, misinformed, or excessively biased. Either way, it's beyond justifiable.

Bear in mind that BFT had UCLA at #2 last week. Last week's ballot also had this gem: next to Alabama, who he ranked at #3, he says, "Defense wins championships." Of course, he then puts Texas, with a top 10 defense, at #5 and, this week, behind Notre Dame.

Some of us take our Blog Poll ballots seriously. Others, it turns out, do not.

Barring a turnaround in my sexual preference, I have absolutely no reason to visit that blog anymore. R.I.P.
--PB--

 

Under Review: The Colley Matrix

More computer weirdness for you. Last week I detailed some of the bizarre rankings found in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. This week, I’ll take a quick and dirty look at the Colley Matrix, another computer ranking system used by the BCS.

Unlike Sagarin, Colley doesn’t offer two sets of rankings, one with MOV and one without. He only offers one formula, and it does not include margin of victory as a ranking factor.

Colley’s rankings for this week were just released, and the top 10 might surprise you a little bit.



Colley Rankings
RankTeam
1Texas
2Penn State
3USC
4Va Tech
5Bama
6Oregon
7Miami
8Ohio St
9Wisconsin
10Texas Tech



I find it rather bizarre that a computer system in which only winning and losing matters can have a one-loss Penn State team ahead of both Alabama and USC. It’s simply confusing. The Big 10 is clearly ranked as the big time heavyweight conference, which would also explain the bizarre showing of Wisconsin in the top 10. But then again, Oregon at #6 surely means the Pac 10 is ranked pretty decently, too. If so, why is USC not ahead of Penn State? And hey, isn’t the Big 10 0-2 against the Big 12?

I don’t have any profound conclusions to offer here. I’ll just say that it’s a rather wacky top 10. Wisconsin has no business in there, and USC should be no worse than #2. I’m all for objective measurements of teams, but it sure looks like these formulas are producing some wacky results. The human voters, I’m beginning to think, may be the more fair and reliable source for ranking teams.

I don’t want to dismiss computer formulas and conclude they're worthless. But my early, rudimentary examinations of them have left me scratching my head.

Back to Hornsblog Home Page.
--PB--

 

100 Percent Dominant

The Texas Longhorns 2005 season is brought to you by the number 100.

*This year’s Red River Rivalry was the 100th meeting between Texas and Oklahoma, and another stop on the Texas Pasadena-bound train. The victory snapped a five year dry spell for the Horns.

*Since D’Juan Woods deflected TD catch that put Oklahoma State up 28-9, Texas has gone absolutely berserk, outscoring the Cowboys and Bears 100-0. Wow.

*Texas has had six 100+ yard rushing days. Jamaal Charles (3 times), Vince Young (2), and Ramonce Taylor have all broken the century mark in rushing this season.

*Texas has allowed only one opponent to have a 100 yard rushing day—Mike Hamilton of OSU.

*Texas is the only team to score half of a hundred points or more in five games this season.

*The most important 100 of all, of course, is the percent chance that Texas will make the Rose Bowl if they win out.

--PB--

 

Texas 62 Cubs 0

Baylor was in a pretty unfortunate spot this week. Besides being completely outmatched on both sides of the football, they caught Texas at a time when they were playing for style points. Prior to Miami’s humbling of Virginia Tech, the Longhorns were on a mission to send a clear message to BCS voters that they, and not the Hokies, were the better team. After last week’s first half stumble, Texas and Mack Brown (not one to normally run up the score) wanted to beat Baylor by as many points as possible.

62 points and a shutout sends a pretty strong message. Of course, Virginia Tech got demolished by Miami’s defense later that night, making it a moot point, but the message was clear: Texas is one of the two best teams in the country.

There is simply little to criticize about the performance. Combing the game's box score is like reviewing your victory totals in a PlayStation college football game on Rookie level of difficulty. 54 rushes for 347 yards. 298 yards passing. No turnovers. Two interceptions. 201 yards total offense allowed. 645 yards total offense gained. The only mistake was a botched extra point attempt early in the game.

Ramonce Taylor and Jamaal Charles took on the rushing duties in the first half ably. Charles looked about 85 percent of his old form, which was still impressive. Taylor accumulated over 100 yards rushing, and is a nice compliment to Charles, but the difference in the two is noticeable. Taylor, a great athlete and competent rusher, doesn’t quite have the instincts that Charles does. It’s nice that Texas has Taylor as Charles gets healthy, but come the big games, it’s Charles that the offense needs.

Limas Sweed was his usual self, managing to look great and lousy in the same game. He made two spectacular catches, including a one handed grab of a Vince Young bomb that was Sports Center’s play of the day. Billy Pittman continues to impress, and Quan Cosby has started to make himself useful. All in all, Texas didn’t really need to throw much, but they were successful when they did.

Gene Chizik had to be pleased with his defense. After the lackluster performance against OSU in the first half, he had high expectations for the defensive unit this week, and they dismantled the feeble Baylor attack, while forcing two turnovers (both interceptions).

The play of the day belonged to backup quarterback Matt Nordren when he galloped 15 yards on a misdirection quarterback keeper. With a clear path to the end zone, Nordgren’s eyes got wide and he dropped the football on the five yard line. Matt must have been going to church lately—the ball bounced straight off the ground into his arms and he rumbled into the end zone for the final score of the day.

Next up for Texas is an improving Kansas team, which throttled Nebraska 40-15 last week. I’m certain Mack Brown will remind his players of last year’s game in Lawrence, where Texas needed two touchdowns in the final five minutes to pull out the win. Texas is no longer playing for style points, so they needn’t be perfect, but they’ll need to be sharp and take Kansas seriously to avoid any stumbles. We’ll have a full preview of the game later in the week.
--PB--

 

VinceYoung.com

The folks at MackBrown-TexasFootball.com have officially kicked the Vince for Heisman campaign into high gear, as there's now The Vince Young Page.



There you can learn "Vince Vitals," check the "Vince Wire," and read "Vince Features."

It's on now.

--TR--

 

Weekend Picks Review

Joining ATL for last week’s picks were the authors from Heisman Pundit (HP), Boi From Troy (BFT), MGoBlog (MGB), and Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer (RJYH). The experts consensus picks fared reasonably well, going 4-3 against the spread. The individual records of the picks were:


Under Review: “Experts’ Picks”
BlogRecord
ATL4-3
HP2-5
BFT4-3
MGB2-5
RJYH3-4
Consensus4-3


The consensus pick of Wisconsin was notably awful. Penn State absolutely stifled Wisconsin’s rushing attack; the game was no contest. At ATL, we correctly picked an Arizona win, Texas and Texas Tech blowout wins, and Notre Dame to handle Tennessee comfortably. We were wrong about Wisconsin, we thought USC would cover, and we picked Virgina Tech to win at home. We were especially pleased to be wrong on that last one.

 

Hornsblog History

Back on September 25th, the Virginia Tech hype started to boil. In my notes from around the country, I offered my own take on the Hokies:

Sunday, September 25

Around the Nation
*I refuse to drink the Virginia Tech Kool-Aid. Yes, they have a good defense and an exciting young quarterback. But let’s tone down the praise, folks. Their only good win is at home versus Georgia Tech. Beat Miami and Florida State and we’ll talk. Marcus Vick will lose them a game before the year is over. Count on it.


Call this a shameless patting myself on the back if you like. I could care less. I'll be that guy: I told ya so...
--PB--

 

ATL Top 25

1. Texas (Horns had something to prove on Saturday. Poor Bears should have ducked.)
2. Southern Cal (Another 30 point win for Trojans. Fresno State won’t roll over, though)
3. Alabama (Tide keep winning with suffocating defense.)
4. Miami (How about an Alabama-Miami BCS game? Would anyone score?)
5. Penn State (More stifling defense. The top 10 is loaded with great defense.)
6. Georgia (Shockley injury is disappointing. This team is excellent.)
7. Ohio State (Ginn, Jr. is finally playing well, which is a huge boost to offense)
8. Notre Dame (Smardzjidzjzdijaza is a beast.)
9. LSU (Still coached by Les Miles, or would be ranked higher.)
10. Virginia Tech (Still a very strong team, but weaknesses exposed.)
11. Oregon (They just keep getting better.)
12. TCU (Did they have to lose to SMU?)
13. Florida (Fortunate to beat an improved Vandy team.)
14. West Virginia (The Big East shouldn’t get an automatic BCS bid.)
15. Texas Tech (It’s time they get some respect. Rolling all non-Longhorn Big 12 opponents.)
16. UCLA (Oops.)
17. Fresno State (They won’t be a cupcake for Trojans.)
18. Auburn (Another team on the rise.)
19. Colorado (Better than most realize.)
20. Florida State (This team has serious weaknesses.)
21. Michigan (Looking like Ohio State last year; coming on strong—too late)
22. Louisville (See: West Virginia)
23. Wisconsin (Hey, Brooks Bollinger had a decent weekend.
24. South Carolina (Welcome back, Ball Coach)
25. Oklahoma (DNP; Young team showing signs of improvement.)

Just missed:
Georgia Tech
Boise State
Northwestern
UTEP

California

 

BCS Prediction

Both the Harris and Coaches Polls are already out as is one of the six computer rankings. Given this data and a few educated computer guesses, here is my prediction for what the BCS rankings will look like on Monday afternoon.

1. USC 0.9835
2. Texas 0.9765
3. Alabama 0.8948
4. Miami 0.8639
5. Penn St. 0.8036
6. LSU 0.7587

Beyond that my crystal ball goes a little cloudy. My confidence in these are not high but I thought I would take a shot. Feel free to laugh hysterically later today if these are way off.
--AW--

 

BCS Bound?

And then there were three. USC, Texas, and Alabama are the only unbeaten teams remaining. Thanks to Miami and Arizona, we don’t have to talk about Virginia Tech and UCLA any longer. The road to Pasadena is now crystal clear. If USC and Texas win out, they will meet for the national championship in the Rose Bowl on January 4th. What about Alabama? The Crimson Tide are good but not even in the same category as USC and Texas. Bama couldn’t even score an offensive touchdown on Mississippi State. Their next three games are LSU, Auburn, and Georgia. Very small chance to win out.

So, instead of looking at the Rose Bowl favorites, let’s take a look at likely BCS bowl teams by conference.

Big 10
Penn State (9-1, 6-1)—The Nittany Lions are a victory over Michigan State away from a BCS bowl. The game is in East Lansing in two weeks. The Spartans have lost four of their last five. Penn State is one second away from a perfect season. Alternative: Ohio State would need victories over Northwestern and Michigan and a Penn State loss.

ACC
Miami (7-1, 4-1)—The Canes looked like Miami of old on Saturday night, but there is still work to be done. Miami must run the table against Wake Forest, Virginia, and Georgia Tech without star tailback Tyrone Moss to win the Coastal Division. Miami is a botched field goal attempt from an undefeated season. If the defensive dominance continues, a 12-1 season is not out of the question. Alternative: Virginia Tech should beat Virginia and North Carolina to finish 10-1.

Florida State (7-2, 5-2)—FSU has already clinched the Atlantic Division and will play in the inaugural ACC Championship game in Jacksonville. The Seminoles have no offense and probably won’t beat either Miami or Virginia Tech.

SEC
Georgia (7-1, 5-1)—The Dawgs have Auburn and Kentucky at home to finish their SEC season. With Shockley back, Georgia should take care of business and head to the Georgia Dome on December 3rd. Alternative: Florida could win the East with a road victory over Steve Spurrier and a Georgia loss.

LSU (7-1, 4-1)—Yeah, I know Alabama is undefeated but the Tigers are the better team. LSU finishes with Bama, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The Bayou Bengals are a 4th quarter away from being undefeated. Alternative: Alabama has two tough games left but do control their own destiny. If they can find an offense, they could finish undefeated. Otherwise 9-2 is likely.

Big East
West Virginia (7-1, 4-1)—Another Big East representative that no BCS bowl will want. The Mountaineers have Cincinnati, Pitt, and South Florida to end the year. Alternative: South Florida, one of the only teams with four regular season games left.

Big 12
Texas (9-0, 6-0)—The Horns should wrap up the South with a home victory over Kansas this weekend. Obviously, our last game is with the Aggies in College Station the day after Thanksgiving.

Colorado (7-2, 5-1)—Buffs have two games left and need just a single win. This week they play an improving Iowa State team and then get Nebraska at home. Alternative: Iowa State would need to win out and have Nebraska beat CU in Boulder.

Pac 10
USC (9-0, 6-0)—Trojans have some tough games to end the year: California, Fresno State, and UCLA. ATL expects them to win out and be waiting for us in Pasadena. Alternative: UCLA still has a shot even after getting embarrassed in the desert. The Bruins need to beat Arizona State and then USC.

ATL’s Automatics Berths
Penn State, Miami, Georgia, West Virginia, Texas and USC.

At Large Potential
Notre Dame (6-2)—Irish need only to win out against Navy, Syracuse, and Stanford for an “automatic” berth.

Virginia Tech (8-1), Alabama (9-0), Ohio State (7-2), LSU (7-1), Texas Tech (8-1).

Predictions
Rose: USC vs. Texas
Fiesta: Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Sugar: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Orange: Miami vs. West Virginia
--AW--

Saturday, November 5

 

Closure.... finally

I live in ACC country, so I've had to hear the crowing all year long. Now, Virgina Tech is a very strong football team, but the've had nothing on us. They faced their first test--at home, no less--and lost. The Horns have everything in their hands now. Win and they go to the ROSE BOWL. Lose and we can debate the magnitude of the choke.

Tonight is a great, great, night. I can't tell you how annoying it is to live in ACC country and hear all the homers suggest that Virginia Tech is as good as Texas. Should Texas win out, we'll find out whether or not we're USC's equal, but at least we can finally say, once and for all, that the Virgina Tech BS Bandwogan is wrecked.

Good guys: 62

Bad guys: 0

Whether or not we beat USC, should we get there, this is a magical team.

Hook 'Em Horns
--PB--

Friday, November 4

 

Longhorn Fan Rooting Guide

It’s time for this week’s Longhorn Fan Rooting Guide. As we try to stay in the Rose Bowl slot for the BCS, Longhorn fans need to be rooting for favorable outcomes. Here’s this week’s breakdown:

Group One: Remaining Unbeatens
Root for MIAMI over VIRGINA TECH
Root for ARIZONA over UCLA
Root for MISSISSIPPI STATE over ALABAMA
Root for USC over STANFORD

Again, we’re on record saying we want a piece of USC, so we’ll continue to hope for a Rose Bowl showdown with the Trojans. The big one this week, of course, is the Miami-Virgina Tech game. The Hokies have the only realistic chance of overtaking the Horns, and if they win convincingly over Miami on Saturday night, they could erode the sizable lead the Horns currently hold in the human polls. The UCLA game is largely irrelevant. USC and UCLA will play at the end of the year, and barring some crazy Twilight Zone irregularity in the universe, they can’t both end the season undefeated.

Group Two: The Big 12
Root for COLORADO over MISSOURI
Root for NEBRASKA over KANSAS
Root for TEXAS TECH over TEXAS A&M
Root for KANSAS STATE over IOWA STATE

This gets a little bit complicated, but let’s go over how this works. We want Colorado and Texas Tech to keep on winning. With victories over both those teams, we need them to be ranked as high as possibly at the end of the year. We’ll also (assuming we win out) have victories over Missouri and Texas A&M, but two victories over highly ranked teams add more to us than four wins over medium-ranked teams. We’re going to get dinged by playing A&M no matter what. At this point, we just want Colorado and Tech to keep winning to offset that loss by the increase we’ll add from their continued success.

The same concept applies in a slightly different way in the Nebraska-Kansas and Kansas State-Iowa State games. We want Nebraska to rack up as many victories as possible (except against Colorado at the end of the year) so that Tech, Oklahoma, and Colorado all get boosts from their victories over the Huskers. Likewise, we want Kansas State to win to add punch to Tech, OU, and CU’s victories over the Wildcats.

Group Three: The Rest
Root for OHIO STATE over ILLINOIS
Root for LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE over NORTH TEXAS
Root for RICE over SMU

These are all easy. Keep rooting like crazy for Ohio State. The Rose Bowl race is going to get tighter and tighter if everyone stays unbeaten. Texas’ chances of playing in the title very well may rest on how the Buckeyes finish out. Along with Texas, spend as much of your rooting capital as you can on Ohio State. Sorry,
Brian.
--PB--

 

Under Review: Margin of Victory

How does margin of victory (MOV) affect computer rankings? The BCS did away with MOV as a factor in computer rankings two years ago after USC was left out of the BCS title game in favor of Oklahoma and LSU. The perception was that MOV was skewing the computer rankings to undesirable results. Hence, MOV as a ranking factor was abolished. Many of the people running computer rankings that were participating in the BCS formula withdrew after that change.

Today we’ll take a look to see the effect MOV has on one particular set of rankings—Jeff Sagarin’s. Sagarin offers his rankings in two data sets; the first does not take into account MOV and the second does. There are many other factors that contribute equally to both sets of rankings, but the difference between the two we’re looking at is MOV. Ideal, for this rudimentary study.

The first data set, which he calls ELO-CHESS, is the one the BCS uses, sans-MOV as a factor. The second, which he calls PURE POINTS, or PREDICTOR, does factor in MOV. Sagarin notes the difference on his website:

“In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very ‘politically correct.’ However, it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games.”

Now that we’re introduced to the two sets of data, let’s see how they affect the rankings:



Sagarin Computer Rankings
TeamELO CHESSPREDICTOR
Texas12
USC21
VA Tech34
Alabama428
PA State56
UCLA618
OH State75
Wisconsin816
Oregon99
Tx Tech108
Miami1112
W Virgina1230
FL State1320
Michigan147
Colorado1521
Florida1619
LSU1713
GA1826
Notre Dame193
Bos College2022



What lessons can we draw? (Yes, sample size caveats apply. This is one set of data. It’s not the bible of college football rankings. We know, we know. Shut up.)

*Biggest benefactors of the no margin of victory factor: UCLA, Alabama, Wisconsin, West Virginia

*Most penalized by no margin of victory factor: Notre Dame, Michigan

*A few other teams not in the chart above had huge discrepancies their ELO-CHESS vs PREDICTOR scores: Michigan State (#10 predictor vs #26 ELO), Louisville (#11 predictor vs #28), Iowa (#17 predictor vs #36 ELO).

Okay, now things are starting to shape up a bit. What trends are you noticing? I’ll tell you what jumps out at me. I’m not entirely comfortable with the PREDICTOR rankings. Notre Dame at #3? They’re a very good football team—definitely, in my mind, a Top 10 team. But a home loss to Michigan State? That’s troubling. And Louisville at #11? I’m sorry, but that’s not okay either. And speaking of Michigan State, a system that puts them at #10 makes me uncomfortable. You simply cannot lose 49-14, at home, to Northwestern, and be #10.

My theory? Mr. Sagarin’s PREDICTOR rankings skew too heavily toward teams that can put up a lot of points. Notre Dame, Louisville, and Michigan State, each teams loaded with offense but shaky defense, are rewarded heavily. When your offense is good, if the other team struggles, you’re going to blow a lot of people out. Texas Tech fits this mold, too, and—not surprisingly—checks in at #8 in the PREDICTOR rankings. I actually think Texas Tech gets the “overrated” card too often and that they’re a strong, top 15 team. But #8? I don’t think so.


*On the other hand, the ELO-CHESS rankings look a lot better. Alabama at #4 seems a lot better to me than Alabama at #28. Can you imagine the outrage directed at the BCS if the Tide were actually ranked #28 in a computer that the BCS was using? I’m fairly certain Warren St. John would personally strangle Jeff Sagarin, and then whoever is acting BCS commissioner these days.

I haven’t studied enough data, from enough ranking systems, to make any firm conclusions about margin of victory and its place in these systems. But a quick and dirty look at Sagarin’s rankings certainly makes me very hesitant to endorse any such system. Simply put, they just don’t seem fair. Even if, over the long run and huge sets of data, the margin of victory system comes out with a slightly better average prediction, it’s not fair. It’s simply not fair to penalize Alabama that way. Or to reward Notre Dame that way.

This requires much, much more time and thought than I have right now. But it’s a start.

--PB--

Thursday, November 3

 

Remarkable Vince Young Stat of the Day

36: the number of strides taken from the time he crossed the line of scrimmage to the time he crossed the end zone for Saturday night's 80 yard touchdown run.

Gazelle, indeed.
--PB--

 

Vocabulary 101

Main Entry: ga·zelle
Pronunciation: guh-'zel
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): gazelled /guh-'zeld/; also chiefly dialect gazelle; ga·zelled; ga·zell·ing
Etymology: French, from Middle French, from Arabic ghazAl
: to play masterful and graceful football on one's feet; to daunt and vault over an opposing defense with non-chalant nimbleness.
"Vince Young can gazelle his way to scores on his own."


Courtesy of the Broccoli Landers American Heritage Dictionary
--PB--

 

Texas "at" Baylor Game Preview

Last week we sort of blew off Oklahoma State and it cost us. No, we’re not talking about the football team. We’re talking about us, here at All Things Longhorn. Well, the Cowboys got our attention very early, and we’re not making that same mistake twice. It’s hard not to say Baylor without snickering, but we’re going to do the full preview and (try to) take this team seriously.

First, a few fun numbers for you:

1995—the last time the Bears won two conference games in a season (they have one this year, at Iowa State)

300—points scored by Texas in its last six games versus Baylor

28—points scored by Baylor in its last six games versus Texas (C.J. Wilson should take note)

2—overtime losses by Baylor this year (Texas A&M and Oklahoma)

22—average points per game for Baylor this year

47—average points per game for Texas this year

2—Baylor conference rank in pass efficiency defense

1—Texas conference rank in pass efficiency defense

Even in Baylor’s best statistical category, pass efficiency defense, they’re bettered by the Horns. There’s simply no way to sugar coat this—Baylor is completely outmatched here. It’s a nice story that they’ve been competitive this year, but it’s a relative storyline. “Hey, Baylor doesn’t completely suck this year!”

Their defense is certainly improved, but their offense got shutout by a pedestrian Texas Tech defense and managed only 13 points against the woeful Aggies. Their best conference game was a fluky, double overtime game against Oklahoma that they wound up losing, 37-30.

The worst news of all for the Bears is that Texas stumbled a bit last week and has motivation coming out its ears to blow out Baylor. We do plenty of BCS breakdowns here at ATL, and we’re all well aware that these style points are becoming increasingly important. As Texas jostles with Virginia Tech for the #2 BCS spot, they must continue to impress human voters as their strength of schedule dips with their remaining schedule. After losing ground last week due to the bad first half versus OSU, you can bet Mack Brown will be interested in ringing up a big blowout versus Baylor this week. Add in the fact that Virginia Tech is playing a marquee game versus a Top 10 team this week, while all will be watching, and Texas finds itself in a must-blowout game. That’s a weird concept, but hey, the BCS is a weird concept.

The most interesting storyline for Texas will be watching who gets the bulk of the carries in the backfield this week. Mack Brown has expressed frustration with Jamaal Charles inability to stay on the field (he left last week’s game with cramps), Selvin Young is still banged up, and Ramonce Taylor is creeping into the mix. We’ll be watching closely to see if Charles can regain his early season form and to see if Taylor gets additional carries this week.

The other challenge for Baylor is the diversity of the Horns offensive attack this year. If the running backs are faltering, or the pass game isn’t clicking, Vince can gazelle his way to scores on his own. Young’s become such a multi-dimensional threat that it’s virtually impossible to shut him down. Simply put, he can beat you too many ways. Against Colorado, he was passing like John Elway. Against Oklahoma State, he was running like Michael Vick. Against Oklahoma, he did it both ways. The guy has just gotten too good.

Meanwhile, the defense has a lot to prove after the first half stumble last week. Gene Chizik and the defense pride themselves on their dominance, and while they shut OSU down in the second half, they’ll be out to dominate for four quarters this week.

As always, Baylor’s best chance to make a game of this will be to win the battle of turnovers and field position by a wide, wide margin. Field position has actually been one of Baylor’s strengths this year—in seven of eight games, they’ve averaged starting field position at the 30 yard line or beyond—but it would take a Villanova-esque perfect game for the Bears to win this one.

And don’t forget, this is only a half-home game for Baylor. Every year, without fail, the number of Burnt Orange faithful matches or outnumbers the Bear fans in attendance at Floyd Casey Stadium. Texas has a lot to prove this week, and I’m confident they will. Horns rout the Bears early and win convincingly, 51-10.

--PB--

 

Baylor Bears: Smack Talkers?

The doormats of the Big 12, inspired by the confidence of a bunch of almost-wins, have pulled themselves up off the floor and are... talking shit? Indeed, Baylor cornerback C.J. Wilson has gone all Rasheed on us before this Saturday's matchup with Texas. Says Wilson (via SBR):

"I'll make this prediction: If our offense gives us between 28 and 35 points, we'll win. We're going to accept this challenge head-on. We're not concerned with the BCS talk or the Heisman talk."

Seriously, this is akin to the Arizona Cardinals talking smack to the Patriots. And seriously, when you're the David of the matchup, do you really want to piss off Goliath? The idea is to catch a sleeping giant. Not an angry, storming giant.

Good luck, Baylor.

--PB--

 

Horns Pound St. Mary's

Basketball is back, and I couldn’t be more excited. March Madness is months away and the actual season will not start for two weeks, but there is an air of excitement in Austin. I have already stated this year’s football team is the best I have ever seen. The club Rick Barnes has assembled for this year may also be the best UT basketball team I have ever seen.

The Horns tipped off the season with a 113-49 pre-season victory over the St. Mary’s Rattlers of San Antonio. The game wasn’t that close. Texas started the game on about a 25-0 run and held the Rattlers scoreless for the first seven plus minutes. While the game was never in doubt, Barnes and the Horns played hard for forty minutes. The stats are telling of how well the Horns played. 57% from the floor. A 44-23 rebounding edge. 25 steals. 22 assists. 26 fast break points. And 54 bench points. Yeah, the Rattlers are a Division II team but the Horns looked good.

Gibson looked NBA quick. Tucker looked like the PJ of old scoring from odd angles and rebounding from all over the court. Aldridge looked like the big time player he was becoming last season and is destined to become this one. LaMarcus has beefed up slightly, but it is tough to notice on such a long frame. He scored with ease in the low post and ran the floor, Scooby Doo style, for easy fast break points. Buckman started solidly as well hitting two threes and pounding the glass. Those are the ones we all know about. I walked away dreaming of the Final Four because of what I saw out of some of the others. Mike Williams has softened his hands. I know that is not saying much but he looks able to contribute valuable frontcourt minutes. Freshman AJ Abrams looked like lightning in a bottle leading the team with five steals and six assists. AJ is small (5’10” 160 lbs) but will be able to spell Gibson at the point. Transfer guards JD Lewis and Craig Winder also looked comfortable. Winder was particularly impressive. He defended on and off the ball well and did all the things that make coaches happy and earn more playing time. Don’t be surprised to see Abrams and Winder earn significant time this season.

Last, the defense was fantastic in both the half court and the full court. 25 steals. That is ridiculous. Texas pressured St. Mary’s constantly in the half court and forced bad shots and turnovers all night long. Texas also experimented in the second half with a full court trap. Barnes had Aldridge at the top of the defense guarding the in-bounds pass and then trapping the first player with the ball in either corner. Aldridge doesn’t have the speed to stay with any guards off the dribble but his length was a huge problem for St. Mary’s. It will be interesting to see how much full court press we see this season.

Barnes is my favorite UT coach by far. He recruits well, develops talent consistently, and excels at the defensive end. If there is a knock on Rick, it has been is development of the offense in the half court. Because this team is so talented and so deep, Barnes may be able to rely more on the fast break than in year’s past and use his defensive prowess to create easy transition buckets. This team is good. Real good. I can’t wait to see Barnes mold them all season long. Hopefully, we can avoid injuries and academic issues and peak in March. This team has a legitimate shot at the national title. Things haven’t looked this promising for the basketball team in a long, long time.
--AW--

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