until Texas vs Kansas

Thursday, October 6

 

The Streak Ends

This year marks the 100th meeting of Texas and Oklahoma, and for Texas fans, it’s seemed like that long since we’ve had a win. Thousands of students went all through college without a win over the Sooners. The last time Texas beat Oklahoma, Sugar Ray had a career and dot-coms were still booming. It’s been that long.

It was also the last time that Texas had a truly significant edge in talent over the Sooners, as they do this year. As we’ve noted in our positional breakdowns, the Horns have advantages all over the field. The only place where Oklahoma has an advantage is on the sidelines, where Bob Stoops has throttled Mack Brown.

Mack Brown will likely be the big story this year and will dominate most pre-game coverage. There will be oodles of speculation about the implications of a Texas loss: on Brown, on the team, on the program, on the fans. On Bevo, probably. Who knows.

But we’re not terribly worried, Horns fans. We see Texas winning this game and ending the five year losing streak. Not only does Texas have more talent and experience than OU right now, but we have a capable and proven leader in Vince Young. It’s easy to forget that VY was not the superstar player he is now at this time last year. His coming of age game was against Oklahoma State, after we trailed by four touchdowns.

That was also an enlightenment of sorts for Greg Davis, as Texas finally opened up the field and put Vince Young’s talents to best use. We haven’t lost since the Oklahoma game last year, and we’re not about to end that this weekend.

The key matchup is Texas rushing offense (310 yards per game) versus Oklahoma’s rush defense (65 yards per game allowed). Something has to give. While Texas won’t likely accrue 300 yards in rushing, the combination of Vince and Jamaal Charles is going to be too much for Oklahoma. Don't forget: Mack Brown and Texas are 63-0 when outrushing their opponents.

On the other side, I simply can’t see the Oklahoma offense scoring enough to win this game. The only chance the Sooners have is if they manage to get some points off of defense or special teams. Barring that, there’s no way Texas loses this game. The Horns emerge from the Red River Shootout and start a winning streak of their own. Oklahoma loses and falls back under .500 for the season. Texas wins it, 28-17.

It could get ugly for Oklahoma if: Vince Young has a good day throwing the ball. If Texas is passing well, it’s only going to make the run harder to stop. Texas could win by 20+ if the passing game clicks on all cylinders.

It could get ugly for Texas if: the rush defense lets Peterson run wild. Chizik won’t let it happen.

Worst case scenario for Texas: Vince Young gets hurt.

Worst case scenario for Oklahoma: Adrian Peterson can’t play.

Would bet the farm on Texas (-14) if: I were more confident in Greg Davis and Mack Brown’s usage of Jamaal Charles.

Would bet the farm on Oklahoma (+14) if: I knew that Brown planned to use Selvin Young extensively.
--PB--

Comments:
Very well written. Damn your site and damn this game, I can't get anything done at work.

Can't wait for this victory to come so I can be productive at work again.
 
For anyone who is interested, ESPN Classic has been airing a show called "College Football Rivalries" all this week about the history of Texas-OU. I'm not sure when the next showing is, but I believe it is 6pm Central on Friday. It has all the good times and the painful times featured in there, and does a decent job of showing it from both sides.
 
Good thoughts! I really can't say that I disagree that much. OU will have to be creative on offense and hopefully make some thigs happen on special teams and defense. I'll post my game preview tomorrow if anyone cares to see how a logical Sooner fan feels about the game.
 
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