until Texas vs Kansas

Wednesday, September 28

 

Peter's Picks, Vol. 1

Okay, okay! I give up! The people hath spoken and I shall give them what they want. I’m a populist at heart, baby. The Crystal Ball took a crack at the biggest matchups of the weekend, but now it’s time to make a little money. Where are the smart bets this weekend? Follow this advice at your own risk. All Things Longhorn assumes no liability for botched picks. If you win the farm, though, I’ll ask that you cut me in on 25% of the winnings. That seems fair, no?

Texas (-14.5) @ Missouri
Sell your car and mortgage your house. The Horns are gonna roll the Tigers, boys and girls. First things first. Our defense is really, really good. Missouri ain’t gonna score much. Let’s say we hold them to 14 points or less—hardly the boldest of predictions. The only question is whether you think the Horns will score 28 points or more. For my money, that’s an easy one. Lay the points and cash in. The only danger here, of course, is the inevitable downside that accompanies betting on your favorite team. Betting on your favorite team can be dangerous for your sanity. The Horns roll on, 38-14.


Pittsburgh (Pick) @ Rutgers
Pitt has been undeniably bad this year, but they’re better than they’ve played. Plus, it’s Rutgers. The state university of… New Jersey. The Oklahoma of the northeast. A bad football team in a terrible state. Of course, Pitt has been miserable, and I partly choose this game as a chance to slam the state of New Jersey. I wouldn’t give this a four-star rating or anything, but you could do worse. Pitt wins it, 20-10.


Florida (-4) @ Alabama
See comments below. This line is too small. Florida will win this game, and they’ll probably win by a touchdown or more. Free money. Who doesn’t love that? Florida wins comfortably, 24-13.


Arizona (+17) at California
The Bears are a good football team, but Arizona’s not as bad as people think. They’re getting better, and while they’re not there yet, they’re not going to roll over for anyone. Jeff Tedford is a great football coach, but Mike Stoops is no dummy, either. The problem for Arizona is on offense, where they still struggle to score at times. Still, 17 points is a lot. I’m taking the points and Arizona. Cal wins, but not by enough to cover, 30-17.


South Florida (-21) at Miami (FL)
After disemboweling Louisville last week, that line looks awfully high, no? Don’t be fooled. Miami’s going to dominate this game. The line opened at -23 and has been dropping fast. Bandwagoneers will be driving that line down, expecting another strong performance from South Florida. I don’t know how to put this nicely: Miami is going to kick the s*@% out of them. If you’re patient, you might wait to see if that line drops farther. If so, lay the points and watch Miami cruise to victory, 42-10.


Full disclosure: I just placed my bets for the weekend. $100 on the Horns, $100 on Florida.
--PB--

Comments:
Full disclosure, I never bet on the Horns or Miami. Nonetheless,

Missouri +14.5. Texas looks good but Missouri is able to move the ball enough to stay within two touchdowns as the Horns look toward Dallas in the second half.
35-21.

Pitt in another snoozer. The gave up only 7 point to Nebraska in Lincoln and lost. Are they already looking for a new coach? The Panthers get their first W, 21-20.

Florida -4. I like Florida to win the SEC, even with first year coach Meyer. Urban Meyer is no Les Miles. Florida scores late and wins a close one 24-19.

California -17. Cal is good. Mike Stoops needs another recruiting class or two before they become competitive. Cal 38-14.

Miami -21. I am terrified of this one. I see Miami winning but wouldn't waste a dollar on this line. Miami's defense is stellar. Their offense is not, yet. If Miami protects the ball they could score a lot. If not take the points. Miami's defense scores and the Canes win, 30-7.
 
Texas (-14.5) over Missouri. Missouri lost at home to New Mexico, who lost to UT-El Paso. Austin no es Austin, hombre. Horns BIG.

Pitt (pick) over Rutgers. Whatever. Both teams suck. The Panthers need a Wanstache ride this week.

Florida (-4) over Alamaba. I hit this one below. Gators driving a subUrban to the SEC title.

Cal (-17) over Pitt. Pac 10 games always get out of hand, and a late TD will beat the spread.

Miami (-whatever) over USF. USF winning last week just made the Canes more focused. Miami vs. USF is like Texas vs. TCU, big brother vs. little brother. Canes HUGE.
 
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