All Things Longhorn: Kansas @ Texas Preview

Wednesday, November 9

Kansas @ Texas Preview

Kansas is in a much better spot than Baylor was last week, when Texas was knee deep in an increasingly close battle among Rose Bowl suitors. Now that Virginia Tech has been defeated, Texas sits in a far more comfortable position, needing only to win out for a Rose Bowl berth.

So, while Texas was playing for style points last week, focused intently on completely demolishing the Bears, one could argue that Texas is in perfect position for a letdown game. If Texas were playing the improved Jayhawks on the road, I might buy in to that a bit. The reality is, though, that this game is a home game and, more importantly, it’s senior day. Saturday’s game will be the last game in Austin for some thirty Longhorns, and I don’t see Texas being flat for this one at all.

Add in the fact that Kansas gave Texas a serious scare last year, and the likelihood of a letdown decreases further. If we can eliminate the potential letdown factor from the equation, how does this game break down?

It’s a pretty simple one, actually. All Texas has to do is have a solid offensive day and they’ll win. They don’t need to perfect, or even great—just good. Kansas’ biggest problem in this game is that their offense is pretty challenged. They rank 8th in the conference in rushing, 10th in passing, and 11th in total offense. That’s not a recipe for success against Texas. To beat the Longhorns, you’ve got to be able to score a lot. You aren’t going to beat Texas 10-7 any more than anyone’s going to beat USC by that score. The team that hands Texas or USC its first loss is going to do so with a big offensive game. Kansas can’t do that.

With that said, the Jayhawks defense does deserve some praise here. They rank first in the nation in rushing defense, 37th in passing defense, and 5th in total defense. They only allow 18 points per game. Their coach, big Mark Mangino, is an above average defensive coach. Much like Baylor, it’s hard to take Kansas football seriously, but their defense is to be respected. They play hard, they tackle well, they're well coached, and they execute what they’re asked to do. Snicker all you want; it’s not a bad unit.

Still, even with an above average defense, Kansas is totally outmatched here. They haven’t played an offense as diversely dangerous as Texas’s at all. The best offense they’ve faced—that of Texas Tech—put up 30 points on them. Texas may not beat up on the Kansas defense the way they have against some of their opponents this year, but they’re not going to be stopped, either. Kansas needs to win the battle of turnovers by at least two, needs to dominate the field position game, and hope for a defensive or special teams score. Barring that perfect storm, this one won’t be close. I think Texas will keep its focus, build a 20-3 halftime lead, and win by a final margin of 41-10, with most of its starters on the bench in the fourth quarter.
--PB--

# posted by PB at BON @ 10:54 AM

Comments:

You also have to factor in the fact that UT will be trying to showcase Vince Young for the Heisman race, so expect more passing and less conservatism even if Texas is winning by 20.

# posted by

Wells : 11/09/2005 11:00 AM

I concur with wells.

# posted by

Anonymous : 11/09/2005 11:28 AM

TR your score sounds pretty damn logical. looks like i am going to have to bet on the horns again this week.
Also wasn't Massive Mangino the offensive coordinator at OU (or O Line coach)? Why is his defense good and his offense terrible?
-MH

# posted by

Anonymous : 11/09/2005 12:11 PM

Just to correct, TT only put up 23 points and 380 yards on KU's defense (the other 7 was a defensive TD off KU's inept offense). Two of Colorado's scores against them were special teams TD's as well. KU's defense has been even better than their numbers indicate.

KU's defense isn't "above average" they are "one of the best in the country".

That being said, their offense is so bad I can't see them pulling off any sort of an upset. UT 28-10 (and KU is lucky to get that 10).

# posted by

Nathan : 11/09/2005 1:00 PM

I'm not buying into the KU defense. Who have they played that has a decent offense? Texas has continuously exposed defensive weaknesses all year. Our Offense will not only be well prepared for their defense, but I think we'll see a few plays that we haven't seen before getting ready for the "post-season". The numbers may be good, but no-one they have faced has a good game planner. Tech does not have a good game plan. Their plan is to pass, pass, pass, pass, pass, maybe run. When you game plan against that (as Texas did), they are shut down because they have nothing to go to. Tech is highly over-rated. That can't be used as an example. I do believe that the Seniors will be a little more amped than normal, so expect a few early penalties, but then, the gloves are off. I pity KU. The KU players can blame their fat-ass coach for giving Texas bulliten board material. Texas 63, Flatlands 10.

-John

# posted by

Anonymous : 11/09/2005 1:32 PM

# posted by