until Texas vs Kansas

Monday, September 12

 

Looking Ahead: BCS contenders

I know we are not supposed to look ahead, but I can’t help myself. Texas just pulled off an enormous road win and looks to be in great shape for a run at the national championship. So that I don’t jinx the Horns, I will look at all the contenders weekly. Eventually we will have just two, or maybe three or four. At least we have the BCS to work it all out.

Tier 1—The Favorites
1. USC—had an off week but looked good in their opener. Their schedule is not as forgiving as most have reported. The Trojans have road games against Arizona St, Notre Dame, and Cal. They won’t have a conference title game though.

2. Texas—overcame our toughest test already. We still have OU in Dallas and A&M in College Station. Possible trap games @ Missouri and @ Ok St. The Big 12 does have conference championship game that has tripped us up in the past but North looks weak again. Still looking good for Pasadena.

3. LSU—squeaked one out at Arizona St on Saturday. Schedule is very favorable. Two toughest games are at home vs. Tennessee and Florida. The Tigers will face a tough championship game though. A good bet for the Rose.

4. Va Tech—haven’t been tested yet but will be. The Hokies get Ga Tech, Boston College, and Miami at home but play their rivalry game @ Virginia. I predict they get tripped up somewhere. ACC will also have a championship game this year.

5. Lousiville—no, not Rick Pitino’s team. The Cardinals are a top 10 team without another ranked team on their schedule. Could easily run the table and still not make the Rose.


Tier 2—The Contenders
1. Tennessee—has too tough a schedule for Tier 1 consideration. The Vols play @ Florida, @ LSU, and @ Notre Dame and get Georgia at home. The SEC East will simply be too brutal.

2. Florida—may have too many tests. First year coach, Urban Meyer has all the talent though. The Gators play @ LSU, get Tennessee and Florida St at home and Georgia in Jacksonville. Will have great strength of schedule but easily could have two losses.

3. Georgia—barely beat Spurrier this weekend. The Bulldogs have a slightly easier scheduled than the other two SEC East foes. They play @ Tennessee and @ Ga Tech and get Florida at home. The best shot at Pasadena of these three.

4. Florida St—handled the Citadel but only in the second half. Already have a huge win over Miami but still don’t look like really good. They play a treacherous road schedule: @ Boston College, @ Virginia, @ Clemson, and @ Florida. No chance.

5. Purdue—only a contender b/c of who is not on the schedule. The Boilermakers don’t play Michigan or Ohio St. They do play Notre Dame and Iowa at home though. Maybe.


Tier 3—Need Help
1. Ohio St—Texas knocked them down, but not out. The Buckeyes are really good and could run the table. They only have Iowa at home and close @ Michigan. Could realistically be 10-1.

2. Michigan—dealt a shocking loss on Saturday. They could also win out though. Challenges await @ Iowa and at home to finish the season vs. Ohio St. Maybe we will get the Wolverines again in Pasadena.

3. Miami—a sentimental pick but not likely. The Hurricanes have to go to Clemson and Va Tech and get Ga Tech and Virginia at home. They are good but don’t feel that good.
--AW--

Comments:
Nice job on the coverage guys. I'll definitely keep reading. But I'm gonna play antagonist.

LSU didn't "squeak out" their win any more than Texas. I'm pretty sure Texas fans didn't think the game was in the bag before the safety. I'm sure the "Oh shit, Ohio State still has plenty of time to drive and kick a field goal" factor kicked in.

Oh, and you left Auburn and Arkansas (two big rivals) off LSU's home schedule.

If Ohio State or Michigan runs the table and Texas stumbles in College Station, then do they get ranked ahead of Texas in the end?

I, too, say Louisville could run the table. I also said last week that TCU would run its table.

I'm sticking with my preseason prediction: Southern Cal falls to Notre Dame. Oh, you left Notre Dame off your BCS contender list. If they win that schedule then they'll be in Pasadena.

I haven't looked at Texas' schedule this week, so I can't remember if they're playing Rice, New Mexico State, Southlake Carroll or Longview.

Anyway, keep up the good work.
 
Freedom,
Thanks for reading and commenting. Texas plays Rice at home this week.

I think both LSU and Texas squeaked out victories.

Notre Dame has been awesome but their schedule is still so tough that its hard to imagine them in Pasadena. But I could be wrong.

LSU has the best shot from the SEC. Auburn lost their opening game at home and Arkansas just lost at home to Vanderbilt. You are right, no game in the SEC is easy. But I stuck to games against top 25 opponents for now.

-AW-
 
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