All Things Longhorn

We’re introducing something new here at All Things Longhorn: the ATL Roundtable, where we’ll be breaking down an interesting topic three ways, between ATL’s two regular authors—Peter Bean and Andrew Wiggins—as well as Travis Richmond, former editor of the sports page at the university's daily newspaper, The Daily Texan, and an avid Longhorn fan as well. These roundtables are meant to spark discussion, and we strongly encourage readers to jump in the fray at the end of the posting in the comment section.

Today's Topic: How effective will the Texas passing attack be this year?

Peter Bean
Let’s start with some stats, gentlemen. Here are Vince Young’s statistical passing totals:

2003, freshman: 84-143 (58.7% completion), 1155 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT, 96.2 yards per game, QB Rating 130.6

2004, sophomore: 148-250 (59.2%), 1849 yards, 12 TD, 11 INT, 154.1 ypg, QB Rating 128.4

And now, for comparison, another African-American Big 12 quarterback who can run as well as pass, Reggie McNeal:

2002, freshman: 24-45 (53.3%), 456 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT, 57 ypg, QB Rating 169.1

2003, sophomore: 113-221 (51.1%), 1782 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT, 148.5 ypg, QB Rating 124.5

2004, junior: 200-344 (58.1%), 2791 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT, 232 ypg, QB Rating 137.4

What can we make of this? We can pretty much ignore McNeal’s freshman year, as he only played for limited minutes, and didn’t even appear in three games. So, let’s compare McNeal’s sophomore-junior campaigns against Young’s freshman-sophomore seasons and see what we can learn.

In McNeal’s first full year as a starter, he was solid, but far from a strong passing quarterback. Only one more touchdown than interception, a mediocre completion percentage, and an unspectacular quarterback rating. Fast forward a year to McNeal’s junior year and we see a huge improvement. McNeal was very good last year, with a strong completion percentage, quarterback rating, and TD-INT ratio. The Aggies clearly trusted him to pass more, too, as evidenced by the 56% increase in passing attempts.

Basically, after a freshman year in which he was learning the college game, McNeal had a rough sophomore year and a breakout junior year. And let’s not forget: after McNeal’s 2003, plenty of people were clamoring about how he couldn’t pass and was too one-dimensional.

Sound familiar? It should. Vince Young, with the benefit of a redshirt year upon arriving in Austin, had a productive-but-rough freshman year and an improved, but not spectacular, sophomore year. Is there reason to think Young can break out in the way that McNeal did?

In my mind, I think we’re going to see significant improvement in the Texas passing game and Vince Young this year. Last year’s receiving “core” was pathetic. As one of our more poetic readers pointed out in the comment section, “Limas Sweed fucking sucks!” Well, he certainly sucked last year. But he’s still big and talented. The tight ends are solid. And, like McNeal in 2004, I think we’ll see Young have a much improved year passing the ball. I don’t think we’re going to see numbers that, taken without consideration for his running, would blow anyone away. But I think you’ll see fewer interceptions, more touchdowns, and more deep balls. I’m not expecting Peyton Manning here, but something closer to Reggie McNeal of last year would be just fine.

And lest we give McNeal too much credit here, let’s not forget who the better runner is. In Young’s first two years he ran for 998 yards and 11 TD (2003) and 1079 yards and 14 TD (2004). McNeal can’t touch that. He ran for 370 yards and 4 TD (2003) and 718 yards and 8 TD (2004). Give me Young any day of the week.

Andrew Wiggins
Don’t call me an Aggie, but McNeal for Young is more than worth considering. In his first two years at UT, Young was a run first, pass second quarterback. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Texas won a BCS bowl (during which Young was spectacular) for the first time in team history and has beaten everyone but OU since Young took over.

We hear week after week how difficult it is to defend against Young. But we must remember that the last two years Young has had Cedric Benson at his side. This year that will not be the case. Texas has successfully gotten away with running until it can’t run anymore before even considering passing. I don’t think this is going to work again this season without Benson. Romance Taylor and Selvin Young have extremely big shoes to fill. Unless they provide a second serious run threat, Young and the Texas offense will be in trouble.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that they do. Are we now to assume that OSU, OU, and A&M won’t be able to scheme a defense to stop the run enough on first and second to force third and long. Third and long is the demise of all offenses but will be even more so with Texas without a legitimate passing threat from Young. I agree with Bean that we may see better years from our young wideouts but unless Young develops into a more accurate, more consistent passer, it won’t matter who is running the routes.

Technique is why I will place Reggie McNeal slightly above VY. Young is probably a better athlete and is certainly better at making defenses miss with the ball in his hand. McNeal is without a doubt a better passer, though. He has the technique, arm strength, and confidence to make the throws necessary to run a quality offense. In my opinion, Young may have the arm strength but in no way does he have the technique or confidence to become a quality passer. I predict both McNeal and Young will have outstanding years and both will show improvement from their last two. McNeal will improve his accuracy while continue to come up big in big games. Unless Young has improved his mechanics in the off season to allow him to throw the ball over his shoulder and down the field with strength, he will remain simply a great running quarterback.

Travis Richmond
Reggie McNeal is a good quarterback. Vince Young is an unstoppable player. Now you tell me which one you would rather have. It’s college football. You take the best player and build around him. If you’re USC and you lose Matt Leinert, you’d want the better passer. But if you are Virginia Tech and the offense is going to the Michael Vick show, you want the unstoppable player because on every play he is the number one option.

Texas this year will be the Vince Young show. That’s fine with me, because I think he is the most exciting player in college football, and when you have the number one guy, you showcase him. There was no doubt what the Atlanta Falcons were going to do after they traded for the No. 1 pick to draft Vick. It was going to be his show.

Now with Benson gone and no established receivers, it’s got to be the Vince Young show. The coaches knew this last year and they started making plans for it. The idea was cemented when Young took over the Rose Bowl. What we saw was not the original game plan. Cedric Benson got hurt on the first series, and from there the playbook went out the window. We should have lost that game, and the coaches basically knew it. Without Benson, our offense had no one to pound the ball with. So the coaches just let Vince “wing it” out there. It was like a video game. And most importantly, it worked.

Here’s something I never thought I’d say: that Rose Bowl may end up being one of the most important games in Texas football history, and not for what it accomplished but what it may lead to. If we open the offense up this year, it will be because the coaches found out on accident that it would work, and that Vince was that damn good.

But if we see the same old bullshit, with Vince playing in handcuffs, we’ll have two losses by the middle of October.

We’ll know very soon. If you see wild and crazy Texas, almost streetball style, in the opener, this could be the year. If I see Selvin Young get 20 carries and Vince is running for less than 100 yards, I am going to be pissed because it will mean our coaches don’t have the balls to let the man play.

Young is the Heisman favorite by a mile at this point, believe me. Everyone around the country saw the Rose Bowl, and no one wants a repeat winner in Leinart. Vince also has the two giant showcase games early to solidify his role as favorite. We’ll know very early on whether Mack Brown is smart enough, and ballsy enough, to let the Vince Young show take the stage.

# posted by PB at BON @ 10:17 AM