All Things Longhorn

Thinking about placing some wagers on this weekend’s Final Four action? Yeah, me too. Here’s some information you might want before placing your bets.

North Carolina (-5.5) vs Michigan State (o/u 157.5)

North Carolina is 1-7-1 in its last 9 games against the spread. Because they have the talent and ability to blow out just about anyone in the country, their lines tend to be a bit inflated.

Michigan State, meanwhile, enters the game on an opposite trend, having beaten the spread in 12 of their last 14 games (12-2). The Spartans have been tagged as underachievers for nearly two years now, a label this trip to the Final Four finally dismisses. Still, Las Vegas hasn’t been giving them much credit. If you think Michigan State can beat UNC, getting 5.5 points is a lot.

Illinois (-3) vs Louisville (o/u 145.5)

Louisville beat the spread for six straight games in January, then lost against the spread for six straight games in February, and now has gone 5-5 against the spread in their last 10. Undervalued, then overvalued, now just about right. It’s hard to say how well Louisville is going to play on any given night. At their best, they can beat anyone by 10+ points. At their worst, they can really look bad (they lost by 17 to Memphis in February). Proceed with caution.

Illinois has been pretty even against the spread this year (15-17), losing only slightly more than they’ve been winning. Over their last 11 games, they’re 6-5 against the spread. The over/under, however, has been a different story. The Illini have gone under in 65% of their games.

# posted by PB at BON @ 12:13 PM