until Texas vs Kansas

Monday, October 3


Texas has a computer problem

Texas may have a computer problem this year. The problem is twofold. First, the Big 12 is down. Way down. Of the big six conferences, only the Big East is lagging behind the Big 12. Unless you buy Texas Tech as a powerhouse, or expect Oklahoma to turn it around, or think that Texas A&M is good despite needing overtime to beat (gulp) Baylor, there are no opponents of note left on the schedule. That’s not to say Texas can’t stumble and lose, but let’s say, for argument’s sake, that they win out.

That would mean exactly one big win—at Ohio State—and a pretty mediocre strength of schedule rating in the computers. Compounding this problem is the chicken sh*t BCS rule that computer rankings can’t take into account margin of victory. Of all the dumb BCS rules, this one has to be the worst. To illustrate how much this is going to hurt Texas, consider the Sagarin computer rankings.

Jeff Sagarin, whose computer rankings are part of the BCS calculus, gives his rankings in two sets. The first set, which he calls ELO-CHESS, is the one the BCS uses, where only wins and losses (and not margin of victory) are considered. The second set, which he calls PREDICTOR, are his preferred rankings (if the BCS allowed it) and takes into account margin of victory.

Using the PREDICTOR rankings, Texas checks in at #2. Hurray! But on the ones that the BCS uses, based solely on wins and losses, Texas is #11. Ouch. It’s hard to see this problem going away. These ranking systems rank us much more favorably when the margin of our victory is taken into account, but when a win is just a win, no matter by how much or how little, Texas is in trouble. It’s too early to get excessively involved with BCS numbers at this point, but it’s something to keep in mind as conference play continues. The short of it is: root like hell for Ohio State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Rice. And keep a close eye on the Big 12 north. We’ll want Colorado and Kansas (our two north opponents this year) to beat up the rest of the north. Go Buffs?

So basically what you're saying is OU can still beat us without even winning the game this weekend?

Kansas I can't see helping much, but Colorado may help, if they can get past A&M, which I see as a much better posibility after last week, then they have a good chance of winning the North and only having 2 losses going into Big 12 Champ, UT and Miami. But beware, last time Colorado met up with UT they were the spoilers for our last run.
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